With Southampton’s victory over Swansea City on Tuesday night sealing their relegation to the Championship, just one question lingers over West Brom heading into their final game of the Premier League campaign – will caretaker manager Darren Moore get the job full-time?

It’s a debate that spans a wealth of different subjects, from the underrepresentation of BAME coaches in English football to the bitter financial double-relegation-inducing struggles many top-flight clubs face upon being demoted to the second tier.

While recent results, claiming eleven points from a possible 15 during his five games in charge, may make it seem like an obvious decision for West Brom’s ownership, there are actually a wealth of complex factors at play – made all the more significant by how important the club’s next manager will be. He could take the Baggies back to the Premier League at the first time of asking or leave them toeing the edge of the abyss.

The former defender’s impact on the Baggies’ form has no doubt been phenomenal; the fact they’re now on course to avoid a rock-bottom finish this term and weren’t the first Premier League club to be relegated, despite having just 20 points after 32 games, is evidence enough of that. But that gigantic turnaround is made all the more special by the calibre of club West Brom have faced in their last five games, and more specifically for the issue of Moore’s future, the calibre of manager he’s outwitted.

During his caretaker spell, the 44-year-old has beaten two Champions League winners in Rafa Bentiez of Newcastle and Jose Mourinho of Manchester United, a Bundesliga winner and two time-European Cup finalist in Liverpool’s Jurgen Klopp, and a former Premier League runner-up in Tottenham’s Mauricio Pochettinho who not long ago was being touted for the Real Madrid job.

And yet, there’s an important caveat to consider here, a myth to dispel. As good as West Brom have been under Moore, decent performances against top six opposition has been one of the few recurring strengths of their campaign. Perhaps the biggest example of that is the 3-2 win over Liverpool at Anfield in the FA Cup, but West Brom have drawn with Arsenal, Liverpool and Tottenham in the Premier League too. In fact, under Tony Pulis and Alan Pardew, the Baggies’ undefeated rate against the Big Six was just 12% less than their entire season average – Moore’s spell included – against all opposition.

So, when combined with the much-fabled ‘new-manager-bounce’, something Moore has clearly brought to his temporary role, perhaps West Brom’s sudden rush of impressive results against top teams is more explainable than many have assumed. Not so much Moore working wonders, but providing the feel-good factor to improve upon one of the few things West Brom were already doing relatively well this season.

That isn’t, however, to downplay what Moore has achieved during his short stint in the dugout or give the club any excuse not to hire him, which it does feel like they’re searching for at this moment in time. Friend and former Baggies striker Kevin Campbell has already questioned whether that’s due to Moore’s ethnicity, and it’s a difficult interpretation to look past. It disappointingly seems far more likely that if a white manager were to replicate Moore’s feats with a rock-bottom club, giving him the chance to take the role full-time would already be a foregone conclusion.

“Let’s look at the straight-up facts. The fact of the matter is that if he was doing this job anywhere and he was a white manager then he would be getting the job. I don’t know why but for some reason the black managers don’t get the job so easily.”

But it’s important not to get tied up in long-term, institutional issues and focus on the specifics of West Brom’s situation. If Moore had taken over at the end of a disappointing but not completely abysmal season and pulled off a string of decent results, perhaps he would be West Brom’s next permanent manager by now. Perhaps if he’d temporarily been given the job instead of Pardew, a run of early results would have seen him put in charge for the remainder of this season.

It’s clear though, that West Brom never placed Moore in the dugout to audition for the job and while there’s no doubt he would have passed it with flying colours, he was made night watchman for a reason – to minimise embarrassment until the next manager arrived. Perhaps the Baggies board had a successor lined up from the moment they parted with Pardew, and the manner in which Moore’s unexpectedly excelled has only muddled their long-term plans for rebuilding the club in the second-tier. Maybe they already have the perfect candidate and structure in place.

Yet, even if they do, Moore’s surely given them something to think about. For starters, if they wish to rebuild the club, there are few at the Hawthorns with a better knowledge than Moore. He made over 100 league appearances for the Baggies as a player, wore the captain’s armband, and has been part of the coaching staff since 2014 when he joined the academy setup. He knows the young players breaking through who have a chance of making it in the Championship, he understands West Brom’s identity better than any manager who could come in, he has the popularity to keep the fanbase united during what could be an incredibly difficult adjustment period for the Midlands club, and he’s qualified – Moore completed his UEFA Pro licence six years ago in 2012, when he was still playing with Burton Albion.

The counter-argument is, of course, Moore’s lack of experience. That not only applies to games played, but also moving the right players in and out of the club. This will be a massive transfer window for the Baggies, one where they will find themselves powerless to losing their most talented players and ineffective in forcing out those on huge contracts. The chances are that Moore won’t be left with the squad he truly wants upon entering the fierce realms of the Championship – how well will he cope with that? Does he know how to effectively integrate new signings in pre-season, so that they’re ready to go for the start of the next campaign? Does he know how to work with players who aren’t really in his plans?

The other area where inexperience may cost Moore is tactically. While he’s generated the belief for West Brom to get results upon essentially returning to their style of play under Pulis – they’ve actually averaged 2% less possession against the top six with Moore in charge despite the massive uplift in results – West Brom will be treated entirely differently in the Championship. They’ll be expected to bring the game to the opposition, which flips the Baggies’ entire game-plan on its head. Pardew tried to make the team more open and expansive, but ultimately and perhaps inevitably failed. Can Moore do better, likely with players of lesser quality, in a more defensive league?

There are copious examples too, ranging from Champions League winner Roberto Di Matteo to Leicester City’s Craig Shakespeare, of caretaker managers having a resounding effect during the end period of one season, only to painfully struggle at the start of another. Even compared to them, Moore’s run has been quite exceptional considering West Brom’s situation, generating a strangely instantaneous consistency amongst players who have been fallible all season. But it certainly wouldn’t be the shock of the century if West Brom started next season poorly and Moore found himself thrown on the scrapheap by mid-October. In fact, it would be a relatively safe bet.

In many ways though, using uncertainty over Moore’s sustainability as cause not to hire him permanently contradicts itself. After all, did Alan Pardew – a well-established Premier League manager with an abundance of experience – prove sustainable? How many experienced managers have taken over at a new club, only to find themselves sacked after ten or 15 games? Almost countless. So why would Moore have a better or worse chance than anybody else, in an industry where the actual ability of the individual often seems far less significant than factors largely outside their control?

Nobody can guarantee Moore will be a good long-term manager, but that applies to almost every appointment in English football these days. Surely, after giving West Brom a glimmer of hope at the end of a completely hopeless season, Moore’s at least proved he deserves his chance.

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